Britain’s Real Problem, and Yours

Britain's real problem, and London's

Britain spent Tuesday talking around the one word Westminster always circles: growth. The Bank of England's Andrew Bailey told incoming prime minister Andy Burnham that feeble growth — the best part of 16 to 17 years of it — is the country's defining problem, not the windfall-tax row over bank profits fattened by high rates and $120 oil. Everything else, he argued, is a rounding error next to it. London's markets spent the day wrestling with their own version of the question — how to stop shrinking. The exchange wants to revive the junior AIM market by stripping out governance rules, but six fund managers warned chief Julia Hoggett it will drain trust, not restore it, from a market already at its lowest this century after 88 firms walked last year.

The real risk is your reaction

For investors, the day's theme was discipline over reflex. The sharpest reminder was behavioural: over a single year US shares have swung from a 41% loss to a 60% gain, yet over 20 years the worst outcome on record was still a 5% annual gain — proof the danger in a sell-off is the panic, not the price. Crypto is learning the same lesson. Holding Ethereum lost you 8% over five years despite record use, a hint the next cycle rewards coins that pay owners cash, not memes. Even Michael Saylor is growing up: his company's Bitcoin "sell-off" was under 0.5% of the stack, housekeeping, not a believer bolting for the exit — and at 80% below its 2024 peak, the stock is a lesson in gearing.

A day that rewarded the patient and punished the panicky — from Threadneedle Street to the crypto forums. To the rest of the issue. — M.B.

Andy Burnham is about to inherit Downing Street and a to-do list as long as your arm. But the Bank of England has just handed him the only item that really counts. Forget the noise about bankers’ bonuses and windfall taxes — the governor’s message to the incoming prime minister was blunt. UK growth, feeble for the best part of 16 to 17 years, is the problem that will define his time in office. Everything else is a rounding error next to it.

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Crypto’s last boom paid for hype and memes. The next one will reward something almost boring: businesses. Here is the tell — holding Ethereum for the past five years actually lost you 8%, even as the network was busier than ever. Usefulness, it turns out, has not paid. What the next crypto bull market rewards will not be the loudest promises or the grandest stories, but the coins that behave like companies and hand real cash back to the people who own them.

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When markets tumble, every instinct screams at you to do something. That instinct — not the falling prices — is the real threat to your money. Market volatility feels dangerous, yet its history is oddly reassuring: over a single year, US shares have swung from a 41% loss to a 60% gain, and still delivered an average year of 12.6%. The drop was never the thing that did lasting harm. Selling into it was.

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There's a certain logic to reviving a nervous market by promising its investors less protection — the same logic as reassuring nervous flyers by quietly removing the seatbelts. London's junior market doesn't need fewer rules so much as more reasons to stay. Trust, it turns out, is far easier to thin than to top back up. — M.B.