Burnham’s In-Tray: Flat Growth, $120 Oil, Steel to Fix

Andy Burnham walks into Number 10 this week, and the economy on his desk is barely breathing. Bailey told the incoming PM that growth — feeble for the best part of 16 years — is Britain's single biggest challenge, and the numbers agreed: GDP crawled just 0.1% in May, a services sector worth 80% of output doing all the lifting while manufacturing fell 0.8% and a reignited Iran war shoved oil back near $120 a barrel. Then the in-tray got heavier still: the state nationalised British Steel, seizing the Scunthorpe furnaces after Chinese owner Jingye walked away — saving thousands of jobs, and handing Whitehall the far harder task of making the business pay.

Everyone else had a demand for the new Prime Minister too. Retailers pressed Burnham to cut business rates, warning that £6.5bn of extra employment costs since 2024 has left the high street paying roughly 75% of profits in tax. Barratt Redrow leaned on him to slash housing tax as its shares sat nearly 60% below where they stood five years ago, a decade low, softened only by a £386m buyback. And the London Stock Exchange chose the moment to tear up AIM's governance code in a bid to revive its shrinking junior market — only for a coalition of six fund managers to warn the move would erode trust and drive investors away.

Burnham gets the keys this week — to a flat economy, a barrel of oil back near $120, and a queue of industries already demanding he fix it. Quite the welcome. Now, to the rest of the issue.

ndy Burnham is about to inherit Downing Street and a to-do list as long as your arm. But the Bank of England has just handed him the only item that really counts. Forget the noise about bankers’ bonuses and windfall taxes — the governor’s message to the incoming prime minister was blunt. UK growth, feeble for the best part of 16 to 17 years, is the problem that will define his time in office. Everything else is a rounding error next to it.

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hree years ago, Britain’s biggest pension providers promised to funnel billions into the country’s start-ups. Three years on, the money has barely moved — and Aegon says the problem isn’t nerve, it’s the rulebook. The £160bn manager has pointed the finger at red tape for stalling pension investment, warning that regulation, not appetite, is what stands between savers’ cash and Britain’s high-growth firms. It is an uncomfortable admission at the pledge’s third birthday.

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There's an art to winning power at exactly the wrong moment, and Andy Burnham has just pulled it off. He spent years wanting the top job; he gets it the week oil roars back, growth flatlines and the country hands him a steelworks to run. Be careful what you campaign for. — MJB.