The Foundations Cracked. The Deals Kept Coming.

The Gulf shock lands on Britain

The quiet summer ended with a bang from the Gulf. Fresh US strikes on Iran near the Strait of Hormuz sent oil up and stock futures down, WTI jumping 3.6% to $73.98 as traders flipped from pricing Fed rate cuts to betting on 40 basis points of hikes by December. Britain, as ever, pays for a war it never joined: output shrank 0.1% in April, the first fall since August, with the food industry warning shop prices could climb 10% and the drag set to outlast the fighting by eight months. The political fog isn't helping — City hiring has stalled even as growth holds, London vacancies down 5%, firms sitting on their hands until they learn what Andy Burnham's government will tax.

Markets shrug, and a fallen giant tempts

Markets, though, found their feet by Friday. The FTSE 100 shrugged off a rough week to close up 0.24% at 10,497 as war fears eased and Brent slipped back — Vodafone surged 13% on Xavier Niel's stake-building and easyJet leapt 14% after Apollo gatecrashed with a £5.7bn bid, though the index still ended the week down 1.7%. Across the Atlantic, a fallen giant tempted the brave: Nike, down 44% from its high, dressed up a 407% profit jump that was mostly a tax refund — yet its home market is growing again and the boss is buying his own shares. And for anyone frozen by the noise, the antidote was refreshingly dull: how to start investing simply — a few cheap index funds, an ISA, and the discipline to do nothing.

Oil's back, Britain's quietly paying, and the FTSE threw a party regardless — the calm was only ever an interval, not the all-clear. To the rest of the issue. — M.B.

The bombs are falling thousands of miles away, but the bill is landing on Britain’s doorstep. The UK economy has become the quiet casualty of a war it never joined. Output shrank 0.1% in April, its first monthly fall since last August, just as growth was finally finding its feet, and economists think May brought no relief. A conflict Britain only watched is choking its growth through pricier fuel and warier households, and the damage may well outlast the fighting itself.

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It was a bruising week for the FTSE 100, right up until it wasn’t. After a week of nerves over the Middle East, London’s blue-chip index shrugged, steadied and closed Friday up 0.24% at 10,497.29 — as if the drama had never happened. The calm had a simple trigger: fears of a fresh US-Iran flare-up suddenly looked overdone, oil slipped, and buyers crept back. It was not enough to rescue the week, which still ended lower, but it was the kind of finish that reminds you how fast market fear can flip to relief.

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Nike (NYSE: NKE) stock has been a painful place to be. Down 44% from its high, the swoosh that once compounded wealth for decades has spent the past year testing its investors’ faith. But look past the falling share price and the picture gets more interesting. On the surface, profits just exploded higher; underneath, that number is largely a mirage. And yet the CEO is buying his own stock, and Nike’s biggest market has quietly returned to growth. The headline screams decline. The detail hints at a turn.

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There's a lovely absurdity to the batch: a fallen sportswear giant posts its best profit in years, and the honest response is a shrug — because most of it was the taxman handing money back, not anyone buying more trainers. Wall Street files that under turnaround. The rest of us would call it a refund. — M.B.