When the Data Disagreed, London Bought Anyway.

The Macro Work

This week, Britain's data took both sides of the trade. UK Unemployment Set to Hit a Decade High charted the climb to a 5.5% peak in 2027, with 400,000 more Britons heading out of work. Then UK Manufacturing Defies Iran War to Hit 4-Year High set out the counter-print — PMI at 53.9, even if most of the rebound was panic-buying. The UK Housing Market Just Defied the Doomsayers ran the maths on April's 15-month mortgage-approvals high of 65,900, while UK House Prices Drop Again — Confidence at 2-Year Low posted May's 0.6% drop to £278,024 the day after. UK Borrowing Costs Fall as Rate-Hike Fears Ease talked through the gilt rally after Bailey's dovish week and Iran peace hopes cooled the trade. And Why Trump's New Tariffs Could Hit UK Exporters Soon leaned into the next risk — a 10% 'forced labour' levy that could land on Britain inside weeks.

The Corporate Calls

Over on the corporate side, the takeover desk was the loudest room in the building. Wise Shares Plunge as a Trust Problem Deepens zeroed in on the 15% slump after Belgian prosecutors opened a €500m money-laundering probe. Anthropic IPO: the $965bn AI Showdown With OpenAI stacked up the Claude-maker's filing days after a $65bn raise — one of the biggest tech listings ever, lined up ahead of OpenAI. Universal Music Snubs Bill Ackman's $65bn Takeover noted the board rebuffing the activist as a material undervaluation, while easyJet Takeover: US Firm Circles a £3bn Bargain followed US private credit firm Castlelake circling the £3bn airline. Investec Eyes FTSE 100 Return as Takeover Talk Swirls hit on the lift back into the index — shares +4.6% on the speculation. And the safe-haven trade split clean: Gold Price Soared 44% — Its Best Year Since 1980 gauged the metal's best run since the Carter era, while Bitcoin Price Hits 4-Month Low as ETFs Bleed Cash ranged across the coin's drop and the record ETF outflows.

The data argued. London bought anyway. Now to the rest of the issue.

On paper, it reads like good news: the OECD has just nudged up its UK growth forecast. Look closer, and there is little to celebrate. The only reason the economy grows at all this year is that the government is spending — business investment has flatlined at zero, and consumers are pulling back. A modest 0.9% upgrade built almost entirely on the state’s chequebook isn’t strength. It’s a warning light flashing on the dashboard of an economy running low on its own fuel.

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Your bank grew. Your fintech app sprinted. In 2025, fintech firms expanded four times faster than the traditional giants they’re trying to dethrone — and UK fintech growth led the charge. BCG’s Global Fintech Report 2026 puts the sector’s average revenue growth at 22%, leaving the lumbering incumbents far behind. British fintechs went further still, posting 30% growth as the wider sector banked a record $500bn (~£372.4bn). So why is the City still nervous about whether these challengers can actually win? The numbers tell two very different stories.

Gold just posted its best year since 1980 — and yet the investors who own it for protection came away oddly underwhelmed. The gold price surged 44% through 2025, set 56 fresh record highs, and reached $4,550 an ounce before climbing to an all-time peak of $5,595 in January 2026. The catch? When the Iran war actually erupted, the classic safe-haven asset wobbled rather than soared. So the real question this rally raises is simple: is gold still the hedge everyone assumes, or has something quietly shifted beneath the shine?

For five years, Michael Saylor sold bitcoin maximalism like a man who would never part with a single coin. Then his company did exactly that. Strategy just disclosed its first bitcoin sale since 2022 — a tiny 32 coins for $2.5m (~£1.9m), and the stock dropped more than 6% before lunch. The amount is almost meaningless. The signal is not. When the market’s most committed buyer becomes a seller, even at the margins, holders start asking an uncomfortable question: what does the true believer know that you don’t?